Strong and Vital No 4

Repor tage

The Predicted Depopulation of Japanese Cities A Demographic Warning for Europe and the USA?

Prof. Tomoya Mori

and those with at least 500,000 inhabitants from 21 (2020) to 11 (2120). Around half of the population would thus be lost. In the pessimistic scenario with low fertility, there would be 42 (100,000+ inhabi tants) and 6 (500,000+). «Once the population drain starts,

Probably the most pressing problem facing Japan, an island nation with currently roughly 124 million citizens, is its rapidly greying and shrinking popula tion, 29.1 per cent of whom is aged 65 or over. This trend seems to be underestimated by the country’s policy makers and the general public, at least the speed at which it is occurring is disregarded. The signs of depopulation, which are presently most evident in the countryside, will gradually become noticeable in the urban centres as well. Forecasts for the Future In an article in the Japan Times of May 2024, Tomoya Mori (56), professor at Kyoto University’s Institute of Economic Research, comments on his study of demographic decline in his country in the hope that it will create wider awareness. While a panel of academics and business leaders suggests that Japan should aim for a stable popu lation of 80 million by 2100 to maintain economic growth, it is estimated that the population will actu ally decline by 30 per cent by 2070. By that time, the number of people aged 65 and over is likely to total 40 per cent. Three Different Scenarios On the subject of demographics, the National Ins titute for Population and Social Security Research recently developed three different scenarios for the future in a hundred years’ time, in 2120. The more pessimistic forecast predicts a population of only 36 million, the most favourable is 71 million and the middle one 50 million. All forecasts are below the 80 million that the economy is aiming for. More worrying is the fact that Mori considers the worst estimate to be the most realistic, as the cur rent chronically low birth rate and the lack of drastic initiatives to reverse this trend give rise to fears of the worst, given that the country’s current infra structure is based on a population of around 130 million people. In fact, this downward trend objectively affects many industrialised countries, including Europe in a similar way if the trend does not reverse soon, with this development being particularly pronounced in Asian countries where immigration does not contri bute significantly to population growth. In his statement, Mori explains that, based on a medium fertility scenario, cities with at least 100,000 inhabitants will fall from 83 (in 2020) to 49 (2120)

it will be fast.» Long Story Short:

Half of Japan’s cities could be threatened with extinction this century.

It should not be forgotten that approximately 90 per cent of Japan’s total population is urban, i.e. lives in cities, defined as metropolitan areas. The Grey Future However, despite the state’s efforts to increase the birth rate, the number of newborns fell by 5.1 per cent for the eighth consecutive year in 2023, while the number of deaths reached a record high again, practically double the number of newborns, accor ding to preliminary government data. Mori, himself a father of three, says the state should promote poli cies aimed at supporting children to make their rai sing more affordable. In any case, with the population decline expected to continue for at least several decades - and the consequent fall in the workforce, the pension and healthcare systems will be severely tested. The Japan of the future may have fewer resources to support elderly and families.

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STRONG and VITAL No. 4 - 2024